Issue 03 · Research basis: 2022 attribution research · current platform guidance. Historical sources are interpreted for current GTM decisions.
The decision
Do not cut a campaign because its newest leads have not become opportunities yet. First establish how long that outcome normally takes and compare cohorts at a similar age.
Spend happens immediately. Qualification happens later. A report that divides this week's spend by this week's qualified opportunities can mix different groups of people and make a productive source look inefficient.
What the evidence supports
Google's conversion-lag guidance explains why recent reporting can understate conversions that arrive later. Its 2022 attribution discussion addresses credit across interactions.
Our GTM interpretation is narrower: attribution and cohort maturity answer different questions. A credit model cannot tell you that a recent B2B lead has had enough time to become a sales-accepted opportunity. Measure that lag in your CRM.
The comparison that earns a budget decision
Illustrative example only. These numbers are not GTMhub or client performance.
| Cohort | Spend | Qualified opportunities so far | Cohort age | What the number tells you |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | $6,000 | 8 | 42 days | Potentially useful, subject to your actual qualification lag |
| B | $6,000 | 3 | 7 days | Early observation; several outcomes may still be pending |
If qualification typically takes several weeks, the table does not establish that B is worse. Compare B with A at seven days, then review B again at the agreed maturity point.
Keep bad-fit leads and unworked leads visible while you wait. Maturity is a reason to interpret cautiously, not a reason to ignore a broken handoff.
What to check this fortnight
Put three dates beside the records: acquisition, sales acceptance and opportunity creation. Agree which event counts as qualified pipeline. Inspect the distribution of time to that event, including records that remain unresolved.
Separate brand demand from nonbrand acquisition. Show counts alongside cost and pipeline value so one unusually large opportunity cannot silently determine the entire recommendation.
Then write the decision as a bounded move: amount, campaign, hypothesis, hold condition and next review. Record any change in sales coverage or qualification policy that would affect the comparison.
One workflow
Budget moves turns that evidence into a decision memo. It includes the branch where routing or measurement needs repair before spend changes.
Use the CRM and a reconciled spreadsheet first. Another dashboard cannot settle different definitions or speed up a buyer's evaluation.
Use this next
Open the pipeline definitions and measurement contract. Agree cohort age before reviewing performance. Put the next proposed change in the decision register, including the conditions for keeping or reversing it.
The question for the revenue meeting: are we comparing two acquisition sources, or two different amounts of time?
Publication and source record
Published on GTMhub: . Last reviewed: .